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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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Many participants emphasised the need for clearer, timely and personalised information throughout every stage of their betting experience. This would include the presence of unobtrusive and empathetic staff at land-based venues. 

The study highlighted significant gaps between operator disclosures and genuine player comprehension.

The Commission’s investigation into what constitutes “informed choice” in gambling involved a multi-method approach. 

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Japan’s gambling landscape has remained an enigma. It began as a seismic opportunity sought after by international casino giants following the enactment of its Integrated Resort Implementation Law in 2018, but as progress slowed potential bidders withdrew, and MGM Osaka emerged as the only new kid on the IR block, with a launch date of 2030.

Now, with Japan promising to open two more IR licences in 2027, ambitious bidders are craning their necks for a leg up over the competition. But Japan has telegraphed mixed messaging on the casino industry.

Depsite it having liberalised gambling in pursuit of the economic benefits that casinos can bring, its regulatory architecture and deeply ingrained social attitudes are not particuarly pro gambling.