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What is Pumpkin Bonanza?
Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.
“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
How to play Pumpkin Bonanza
Lottomatica chairman and CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi noted the combination would create a more diversified business with significant opportunities for growth.
“With the combination of Lottomatica and Cirsa, two extremely successful companies, we create the undisputed leader in Italy and Spain, among the best gaming markets globally, complemented by leadership positions in other very high growth geographies,” he said.
Cirsa CEO Antonio Hostench added: “I am delighted to embark on this exciting journey together. The combination of Cirsa and Lottomatica creates a world-class diversified gaming leader with leading positions across its core markets and significant opportunities to accelerate profitable growth.”
What is Pumpkin Bonanza?
A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.
That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.
“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.
